Stories drive the market - fairy tales or scenarios?



We're living in an exciting and volatile time when a pseudo-investor's report drives down valuations across public software companies, ‘Ghost GDP,’ a white-collar recession, and the death of friction: Substack’s top finance writer warns of the 2028 AI crisis nobody sees coming

Since February, high performing software companies have continued to see significant declines YTD, and investors are watching Q1 earnings closely. Despite a strong report and improved guidance, ServiceNow still fell 18%.

Meanwhile, some investors are able to find their way into ever larger rounds of funding for the rapidly evolving AI ecosystem. Musk is smartly taking advantage of this environment to roll up Twitter into xAI into SpaceX. And now he can use the 100x multiple of a $2T SpaceX to agree to buy Cursor for $60B. Compared to the assumed valuation of SpaceX, this seems a relatively small investment to strengthen his AI offering.

But, it also seems like we are getting quite high up the pyramid of investing within and across AI companies. How many more trillion dollar companies can buy billion dollar companies with little short term cash flow?


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