Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends
It's difficult to feel completely gloomy in the summer time, and when things seem stuck rather than falling. Up till now things have followed a relatively predictable pattern, and we should be starting to see some job creation. But it's not happening, and investments are being held back. The longer this uncertainty goes on, the more worried I think we all become, and that could cause panic at some point.
The recent bright spot was the German export led GDP growth - at least one country seems to be doing something right.
GEAB quote - Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends LEAP/E2020 is of the view that the effect of States’ spending trillions to « counteract the crisis » will have fizzled out. These vast sums had the effect of slowing down the development of the systemic global crisis for several months but, as anticipated in previous GEAB reports, this strategy will only have ultimately served to clearly drag States into the crisis caused by the financial institutions. Therefore our team anticipates, in this 42nd issue of the GEAB, a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years.
LEAP/E2020 (GEAB N°42, February 16, 2010) - http://www.leap2020.eu/second-half-of-2010-sudden-intensification-of-the-global-systemic-crisis-strengthening-of-five-fundamental-negative_a4294.html
Broke US States Pose Growing Threat to Recovery The U.S. economy may sink perilously close to another slump, as cities and states cut jobs and curb spending to balance their recession-ravaged budgets. US Capitol Building with cash Two-thirds of the 50 states projected budget gaps for their current fiscal year. They started out the period with a cumulative $84 billion hole, government associations estimate, an amount equal to 0.6 percent of total U.S. output.
CNBC - http://www.cnbc.com/id/38593974
Mass strikes loom in a 'winter of discontent' for UK Government The Government must win the "hearts and minds" of public sector staff to gain their trust ahead of swingeing cuts or face mass strike action in a winter of discontent, an employers' group has warned. Whitehall has been urged to bolster employee consultation and communication during the toughest cutbacks in decades, or risk staff siding with trade unions to cause mass disruption to services, according to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development.
Telegraph - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/7928933/Mass-strikes-loom-in-a-winter-of-discontent-for-UK-Government.html
China Said to Test Banks for 60% Home-Price Drop China’s banking regulator told lenders last month to conduct a new round of stress tests to gauge the impact of residential property prices falling as much as 60 percent in the hardest-hit markets, a person with knowledge of the matter said. Banks were instructed to include worst-case scenarios of prices dropping 50 percent to 60 percent in cities where they have risen excessively, the person said, declining to be identified because the regulator’s requirement hasn’t been publicly announced. Previous stress tests carried out in the past year assumed home-price declines of as much as 30 percent.
Bloomberg - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-05/chinese-banks-are-told-to-test-for-60-decline-in-home-prices-up-from-30-.html
Service sector growth slows as Osborne's cuts bite Public sector cuts limit services sector to slowest growth in a year, services PMI survey shows. The government's wave of public sector cuts knocked growth in the services sector to its lowest in a year last month, according to a closely watched survey today that raises more concerns about the pace of the economic recovery.
Guardian - http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/04/service-sector-growth-slows-cuts
It's difficult to feel completely gloomy in the summer time, and when things seem stuck rather than falling. Up till now things have followed a relatively predictable pattern, and we should be starting to see some job creation. But it's not happening, and investments are being held back. The longer this uncertainty goes on, the more worried I think we all become, and that could cause panic at some point.
The recent bright spot was the German export led GDP growth - at least one country seems to be doing something right.
GEAB quote - Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends LEAP/E2020 is of the view that the effect of States’ spending trillions to « counteract the crisis » will have fizzled out. These vast sums had the effect of slowing down the development of the systemic global crisis for several months but, as anticipated in previous GEAB reports, this strategy will only have ultimately served to clearly drag States into the crisis caused by the financial institutions. Therefore our team anticipates, in this 42nd issue of the GEAB, a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years.
LEAP/E2020 (GEAB N°42, February 16, 2010) - http://www.leap2020.eu/second-half-of-2010-sudden-intensification-of-the-global-systemic-crisis-strengthening-of-five-fundamental-negative_a4294.html
Broke US States Pose Growing Threat to Recovery The U.S. economy may sink perilously close to another slump, as cities and states cut jobs and curb spending to balance their recession-ravaged budgets. US Capitol Building with cash Two-thirds of the 50 states projected budget gaps for their current fiscal year. They started out the period with a cumulative $84 billion hole, government associations estimate, an amount equal to 0.6 percent of total U.S. output.
CNBC - http://www.cnbc.com/id/38593974
Mass strikes loom in a 'winter of discontent' for UK Government The Government must win the "hearts and minds" of public sector staff to gain their trust ahead of swingeing cuts or face mass strike action in a winter of discontent, an employers' group has warned. Whitehall has been urged to bolster employee consultation and communication during the toughest cutbacks in decades, or risk staff siding with trade unions to cause mass disruption to services, according to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development.
Telegraph - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/7928933/Mass-strikes-loom-in-a-winter-of-discontent-for-UK-Government.html
China Said to Test Banks for 60% Home-Price Drop China’s banking regulator told lenders last month to conduct a new round of stress tests to gauge the impact of residential property prices falling as much as 60 percent in the hardest-hit markets, a person with knowledge of the matter said. Banks were instructed to include worst-case scenarios of prices dropping 50 percent to 60 percent in cities where they have risen excessively, the person said, declining to be identified because the regulator’s requirement hasn’t been publicly announced. Previous stress tests carried out in the past year assumed home-price declines of as much as 30 percent.
Bloomberg - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-05/chinese-banks-are-told-to-test-for-60-decline-in-home-prices-up-from-30-.html
Service sector growth slows as Osborne's cuts bite Public sector cuts limit services sector to slowest growth in a year, services PMI survey shows. The government's wave of public sector cuts knocked growth in the services sector to its lowest in a year last month, according to a closely watched survey today that raises more concerns about the pace of the economic recovery.
Guardian - http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/04/service-sector-growth-slows-cuts
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