Last year at this time, I think the markets got knocked off their stride with fears of european debt crises, and the realization that we were looking at a longer US recovery, if not a potential double dip. This year, we can probably assess the risks of these two things better, but uncertainty is very much still here. On top of that we have the current exciting and potentially scary events in Egypt, surrounded by uncertainties leading to perhaps far reaching global consequences. And then further crazy weather patterns, flooding in Australia, mud slides in Brazil, snow pummeling the US, and no snow in the Alps since December! And the markets merrily stay on their steady rise.
I guess I am on the optimistic side of the fence, thinking that innovation and global markets will indeed spur stronger economic growth, which will help re-balance the debts in place, and the precarious position of some central banks and their governments. What I am not so sure of, but would like to see, are some of the tougher restructures that certain US states and European countries need to go through to not repeat this again. I think that must come through embracing both the modernization of real local infrastructure and bureaucracy, and the technologies of the future that will be the global growth markets
European leaders are working on an overhaul of their bail-out fund, in preparation of further stresses and strains ahead. This should see them through, barring a double dip, but behind the scenes, the Germans are working on the more significant longer term move as they see the need for closer true economic policies amongst their partners. The existing fiscal rules were not kept to, and everyone knows that the Germans had to save the eurozone. I hope that they can work through it in the hard slog, but this can only cause strain on the union ahead.
In the US, we still don't know how much this new Republican Congress is going to deliver with the President and Senate. Bernanke just called for a serious tackling of the deficit. Sort of amusing coming from the man who runs the Fed where they create money, but understandable. I am not sure much substantive is going to happen, and perhaps the US ends up growing itself out of this one again, postponing longer some of the big changes they could make like simplifying the tax code or Obama's proposal to cut oil and gas subsidies to fund 'green energy' tax incentives. But I worry that at the local level, the divide between rich and poor communities and governments broadens, and the land of opportunity systematically is not so in certain places.
I have found many of the scenes from Egypt inspiring. To see truly mixed groups of people eager for change, representative of the realities of diversity in a country. I am fearful that this is going to tip to another form of authoritarian government, not because of Egypt specifically, but because there is not much of a history on the region of moves to open democracy. But wouldn't it be so exciting if a new democracy could be formed in this amazing place. It would drive a new optimism in globalization, one not based on economics and business, but in the belief that we are not condemned to the battles of civilizations, but can progress in universal beliefs together.
Meanwhile, China, India and Brazil seem to be generally running with firm purposeful hands. It's great to see the new President of Brazil calmly and professionally take hold of the reins. India is keeping up now with Chinese growth, while the Chinese seem to be able to control their potential hot markets. I hope that they can take the confidence not only to run their own countries, but to play their role on the global stage as equal leaders, and tackle together the global technological and environmental issues that could lead to improved paradigms for all communities in the future.
And my final positive power, is that of the internet. Mubarak turned it off for a few days in Egypt. Google and Apple have revolutionized our mobile power, and hopefully Nokia can work out what exactly it does with all its R&D money so it can catch up. Broadband connectivity are the trains of the C21 and will drive content and communications rapidly round the globe. And the threat of wikileaks will perhaps ensure that our governments are always checking that they are doing something truly for the best interests of their people, which increasingly means for all peoples because we are so inter-connected.
I guess I am on the optimistic side of the fence, thinking that innovation and global markets will indeed spur stronger economic growth, which will help re-balance the debts in place, and the precarious position of some central banks and their governments. What I am not so sure of, but would like to see, are some of the tougher restructures that certain US states and European countries need to go through to not repeat this again. I think that must come through embracing both the modernization of real local infrastructure and bureaucracy, and the technologies of the future that will be the global growth markets
European leaders are working on an overhaul of their bail-out fund, in preparation of further stresses and strains ahead. This should see them through, barring a double dip, but behind the scenes, the Germans are working on the more significant longer term move as they see the need for closer true economic policies amongst their partners. The existing fiscal rules were not kept to, and everyone knows that the Germans had to save the eurozone. I hope that they can work through it in the hard slog, but this can only cause strain on the union ahead.
In the US, we still don't know how much this new Republican Congress is going to deliver with the President and Senate. Bernanke just called for a serious tackling of the deficit. Sort of amusing coming from the man who runs the Fed where they create money, but understandable. I am not sure much substantive is going to happen, and perhaps the US ends up growing itself out of this one again, postponing longer some of the big changes they could make like simplifying the tax code or Obama's proposal to cut oil and gas subsidies to fund 'green energy' tax incentives. But I worry that at the local level, the divide between rich and poor communities and governments broadens, and the land of opportunity systematically is not so in certain places.
I have found many of the scenes from Egypt inspiring. To see truly mixed groups of people eager for change, representative of the realities of diversity in a country. I am fearful that this is going to tip to another form of authoritarian government, not because of Egypt specifically, but because there is not much of a history on the region of moves to open democracy. But wouldn't it be so exciting if a new democracy could be formed in this amazing place. It would drive a new optimism in globalization, one not based on economics and business, but in the belief that we are not condemned to the battles of civilizations, but can progress in universal beliefs together.
Meanwhile, China, India and Brazil seem to be generally running with firm purposeful hands. It's great to see the new President of Brazil calmly and professionally take hold of the reins. India is keeping up now with Chinese growth, while the Chinese seem to be able to control their potential hot markets. I hope that they can take the confidence not only to run their own countries, but to play their role on the global stage as equal leaders, and tackle together the global technological and environmental issues that could lead to improved paradigms for all communities in the future.
And my final positive power, is that of the internet. Mubarak turned it off for a few days in Egypt. Google and Apple have revolutionized our mobile power, and hopefully Nokia can work out what exactly it does with all its R&D money so it can catch up. Broadband connectivity are the trains of the C21 and will drive content and communications rapidly round the globe. And the threat of wikileaks will perhaps ensure that our governments are always checking that they are doing something truly for the best interests of their people, which increasingly means for all peoples because we are so inter-connected.
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