Kotlikoff on US Present Value Gap

U.S. Is “Totally Broke”: Federal Govt.’s Fiscal Gap Is $222 Trillion: Economist | Daily Ticker - Yahoo! Finance

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This professor seems to have increased his profile over the last year, not least by actually running for President. The concept of analyzing the present value of all future revenues less expenditures makes sense from a financial point of view, and $222 trillion means raising taxes or cutting spending by 12% of GDP on an ongoing basis. This methodology puts the US in a worse situation than all other economies, including Greece and Japan.
Kotlikoff would advise to bet against the dollar and long term US bonds, and enjoy a temporary optimism in stocks. For long term, buy into healthier economies like Australia, Canada, Sweden and Norway.

I have some faith that growth can be found to change the dynamics on this, but at the same time, we have to consider bold calls for serious reform to tax, health, social security. The simplicity of a tax plan that gets us away from tax returns is extremely attractive! And 15-15-15 beats 9-9-9 it seems.
I am not sure that American politicians over the last century has really shown the ability to move quickly and dramatically to new economic and tax policies. While on the expenditure side, it seems like a steady creeping of the state, from social security to medicare/medicaid to obamacare. I do believe that a modern state should be able to ensure all its citizens have health care, but it also needs to show the ability to revolutionize its tax approach, and being more progressive but at top rates of 15 points, makes lots of sense to me.

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