On October 15th, for 7 minutes it looked like incumbent Florida Governor, Rick Scott, was not going to take the stage. His opponent, Charlie Crist, had a fan placed under his podium, against the agreed rules (although, perhaps, there was a hand scribbled addendum from his team giving him an out).
Crist made the right move, getting out on stage, making Scott seem petty and giving Colbert and Stewart a welcome treasure chest of comedy.
According to John Dickerson on the Slate political gabfest, this all started back with Nixon and Kennedy both overheating in their debates in the 60s. So, these debate rules governing temperature are clearly important, but what a great extreme example to put in relief the near $4billion being spent in these mid terms for a disappointing level of debate.
The mid terms after all come with an expectation of reaction against the incumbent President's party, while still operating in the same political framework which gives incumbents so high a chance to be re-elected (see below Center for Responsive Politics on open secrets.org)
The smart guys at FiveThirtyEight show that the Republicans have a 74.0% chance of winning a majority in the Senate, with a 21.8% chance Republicans will control 53 seats and Democrats will control 47 seats (FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Forecast | FiveThirtyEight).
The typically lower turnout skews to the more extreme ends of the spectrum, and therefore makes it more certain that the expected candidate will be returned. The Republicans move will likely be in states that went blue on an Obama momentum wave, and now swing back to their truer color. In this regard, spending $4billion on advertising to reinforce stereotypes and beliefs and get to a predictable results seems a cruel waste of money. I don't necessarily have anything against the spend itself - I think it's probably similar to what P&G spend on laundry detergent and toothpaste, and it keeps a lot of local media in business. I would much rather it was spent on debating issues point by point, perhaps in a way that educates us about each other.
So coming back to Gubernatorial debates, it looks like the Governors elections may be the ones to focus on with more to say about how they take their State forward, and through States, the United States. Scott Walker looks to be more likely to win again in Wisconsin, despite a tightening of the polls, after an action packed few years in place. Whether one agrees with him or not, at least his election or not is one of import to issues about government and labor going forward. As for Crist and Florida, not so sure there….
Reelection Rates Over the Years | OpenSecrets: Center for Responsive Politics
"Few things in life are more predictable than the chances of an incumbent member of the U.S. House of Representatives winning reelection. With wide name recognition, and usually an insurmountable advantage in campaign cash, House incumbents typically have little trouble holding onto their seats…
Check Out the Most Expensive House and Senate Races - ABC News: The 2014 House and Senate races will cost at least $3.67 billion, more than the $2.9 billion spent on House and Senate races in 2006 and slightly edging the $3.6 billion spent in 2010, but ranking just below the $3.7 billion spent on congressional races in the presidential-election year of 2012, the Center for Responsive Politics estimates.
Scott Walker’s re-election as Wisconsin’s governor: Why Republicans think it's the most important Election Day race.: “In my mind, if Scott Walker loses, it’s a bad election cycle even if there are big wins everywhere else,” says Phil Kerpen, who runs the fiscal conservative advocacy organization American Commitment, “because the impact on public policy will be more negative than any political upside elsewhere.”
FiveThirtyEight’s Gubernatorial Forecasts: A Lot Of Really Close Races | FiveThirtyEight: Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, who leads by 2 or 3 percentage points in the polling average, is a 76 percent favorite to win re-election…. Charlie Crist of Florida, the former Republican turned Democrat, is just slightly more likely than not to oust Republican Gov. Rick Scott from office.
Tired of the endless gridlock in Washington? Blame the primaries.: the public’s lack of interest in primaries is a key factor behind corporate America’s inability to move the dial on issues it cares most about, from immigration, tax, and entitlement reforms to needed infrastructure spending.
Tired of the endless gridlock in Washington? Blame the primaries.: the public’s lack of interest in primaries is a key factor behind corporate America’s inability to move the dial on issues it cares most about, from immigration, tax, and entitlement reforms to needed infrastructure spending.
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