Facebook announced this week that their Oculus headset will cost $599, and according to tweets from the founder of the VR company, it seems like demand is strong.
Really?
The growth of consumer technology seems to have hit a bit of a lull in excitement (if not actual growth) as we await the next big thing. Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple and Netflix seem to be absolutely crushing it in their respective areas, fully embracing the new mobile platforms and shifts in media and commerce consumption. Google and Facebook are attracting the lions share of digital advertising. Netflix continues to absorb more bandwidth than anybody else. Apple's hardware sets the bar for the industry. Amazon is taking its eCommerce domination to the cloud. Amazingly these already large companies (ok, Netflix is relatively 'small' compared to the others) are continuing to see strong if not accelerating growth!
But, it's a bit boring to predict more of the same for 2016, so our prognosticators and psychics are generally pointing at VR/AR, as well as automated cars.
"Facebook — through Oculus Rift — and Alphabet — via Android OS and cardboard — are both taking an early leadership position in virtual reality, a new media experience that will likely take a few years to develop," Bird wrote. "Facebook and Alphabet are learning earlier than others what consumers like in this new platform, which should contribute to more incremental growth over time."
Facebook, Alphabet Stake Claims In Virtual Reality - Investors.com
$599 for the headset seem expensive? Well yes, but as Wired points out, that's not going to be the main issue. "VR is not a problem of making it “work.” VR is a problem of making it perfect, because anything less than perfect equals “OK, cool, now get this thing off my head.” The Oculus Rift's Problem Isn't Price—It's Perfection | WIRED
I don't think it needs to be perfect for gaming, which is already virtual. But then, that probably means that it is not that incremental either. If it is a great experience, it will simply be the next generation of gaming to help continue that industry to grow. I think that will be the vast majority of VR related revenues and losses (let's be realistic) over the next 5-10 years.
It is the use cases outside of gaming that will be the drivers of new revenues. But for those, I do think that 'perfect' is more important. While using VR to connect with other people and subjects in an immersive way has some exciting opportunities down the road, I am not sure those activities are mass market until they truly feel 'real', rather than 'virtual'. Otherwise, normal video and other great communication options through our phones and connected devices is going to be a lot more practical.
Clearly this technology will play an important role in the future, but it seems to me that we are very many years away from them being mainstream. In the meantime, the technology space is more likely to see something unexpected happen to disrupt it, without the need of a headset.
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