Human break even analysis: Would these people be dying anyway?

When does the broader economic and social cost of shutdown outweigh the cost of death from a new natural virus?


Article from the BBC, here, asks an interesting question, would these people be dying anyway?
“It was a point conceded by Sir Patrick at a press conference on Thursday when he said there would be "some overlap" between coronavirus deaths and expected deaths - he just did not know how much of an overlap.”

Even in this New York Times opinion, with a somewhat inflammatory “Will we endure 2.2 million deaths? Or will we manage to turn things around?”, most of the commentary seems to be on the likelihood of a more manageable outlook, if and when we can get comfortable 

And then a reason article, “If COVID-19 Killed 1.4% of People With Symptoms in Wuhan, the Overall Fatality Rate Is Likely to Be Much Lower Than People Feared. The big unknown is how many people are infected but aren't counted in the official numbers because their symptoms are mild or nonexistent.”