Being Great - The economic consequences of the tariffs


Great?

“America is great when its people are fully employed, when wages sustain a decent life, and when investment secures the future. Greatness is not a boast—it is a balance, maintained daily, between demand, confidence, and opportunity.” Keynes would likely answer

"Achieving greatness is not money, wealth, power today, but the world where are grandchildren can prosper, create, enjoy, love and grow"

DimensionWhat Keynes Would MeasureWhy It MattersKeynesian Rating (1–5)
EmploymentUnemployment rate, labor force participation, underemploymentFull employment was Keynes’s central goal—idle workers mean wasted potential.4 – Unemployment is historically low, though some underemployment and labor force gaps remain.
Wages & Living StandardsReal wage growth, purchasing power, cost of livingProsperity must be broadly shared; stagnant wages undermine demand.3 – Wages have risen, but inflation has eroded purchasing power for many households.
Aggregate DemandHousehold consumption, business investment, government spendingDemand drives output; weak demand risks recession.4 – Consumer spending is strong, though debt reliance raises sustainability concerns.
Public InvestmentInfrastructure, education, R&D, green transitionGovernment spending secures long-term growth.3 – Infrastructure bills passed, but Keynes would push for even more ambitious investment.
InequalityIncome and wealth distribution, Gini coefficientExtreme inequality depresses demand and destabilizes society.2 – Wealth concentration remains very high; Keynes would see this as a drag on demand and an ethical concern
Financial StabilityCredit availability, debt levels, banking resilienceKeynes worried about speculative bubbles and “animal spirits.”3 – Banking system is stable, but high corporate and household debt pose risks.
Global RoleTrade balance, international cooperation, currency stabilityKeynes valued global stability and cooperation.3 – Dollar remains dominant, but trade tensions and retreat from multilateralism weaken the score.


If employment is high, wages are rising, and demand is strong, he’d say America is on the right track.

If inequality is widening, demand is fragile, or public investment is lagging, he’d warn that “greatness” is unsustainable.

He’d remind us that economies are never permanently “great”—they require constant adjustment through policy.

Comments